Read The Environment
Economic conditions establish the market regime before the models consider an individual stock.
Explore The Signal ↓The Research FrameworkA Clear Line
A Clear Line
From Context To Conviction.
One connected process. Read the environment, understand the exposure, then examine the names inside it.
Frame The Exposure
The regime informs the hypothetical balance between invested exposure and cash proxies.
Explore The Allocation ↓Compare The Universe
A common price-and-volume snapshot supports the scores across stocks, sectors, and themes.
Explore The Research ↓Apply The Discipline
Pulse and Strike apply different selection disciplines to the same research foundation.
Explore The Models ↓01 / The Environment
The Market Has A Regime.
A stock score has more meaning when you understand the conditions around it.
Market Health
Edge Market Pulse combines economic and market-stress inputs into a health score and a regime band. It provides context for the model’s risk budget.
Understand The Score ↗Recession Probability
A separate model estimates recession risk over its stated horizon. It is not a forecast of tomorrow’s stock-market return.
Explore The History ↗Crisis Tripwires
Stress indicators identify conditions that deserve attention. Read which conditions are active, their source date, and the model’s resulting posture.
Inspect A Real Edition ↗02 / The Exposure
Translate Conditions Into A Risk Budget.
The allocation framework sets a hypothetical exposure map. Individual stock scores operate within that context.
Foundation / Portfolio Allocation Model
Foundation translates the regime into a mix of invested exposure and cash proxies, with allocation overlays and concentration guardrails. Its output supplies the context for the stock-selection models. A cash proxy still has its own risks; the model’s allocation is not a personalized recommendation.
03 / The Research
One Universe. A Consistent Lens.
Scores organize the research. They are not price targets or probabilities of profit.
Momentum
How strongly is the name moving? Trend, price momentum, and participation help establish the read.
Leadership
How does the name compare with its peers? Relative strength adds context beyond its own chart.
Exhaustion
How stretched is the move? An improving name can still carry timing and reversal risk.
Read the score alongside the market regime, the source date, and the underlying risk flags. A single number is a starting point for research.
04 / The Discipline
Different Ways To Express Conviction.
Pulse / Theme-Aware
Discipline Across The Map.
Pulse selects names within theme allocation budgets. Its structure connects security selection to the allocation map.
Strike / Conviction-Weighted
A More Concentrated Expression.
Strike emphasizes the highest-conviction names allowed by the regime. Greater concentration brings a wider range of possible outcomes.
Questions Worth Asking.
Does A High Score Mean I Should Buy?
No. A score summarizes model inputs from a dated snapshot. Valuation, concentration, event risk, liquidity, and your circumstances still matter. These are impersonal research tools.
Can The Models Be Wrong?
Yes. Thresholds, missing inputs, data revisions, and unexpected events all matter. Explore the historical record, including the missed shock and false alarm, alongside the forward record.
Where Can I Inspect The Output?
The Daily Brief brings the regime, sector research, model portfolio, and risk flags together. The Scorecard applies the published stock research to the holdings you enter.