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The Record · EMP macro history · live model performance

The macro call, dated. The models, marked to market.

This is the desk's core, on the record: fifty years of EMP regime history, every daily EMP read we've printed since launch beside the S&P's close, and the Foundation, Pulse and Strike model books marked to market against the index — written by the pipeline itself, nothing quietly rewritten. A warning system you can't audit is just marketing.

Ledger 1 · The Regime Ledger Free — always

Every macro call, dated. The weather report we actually printed.

The EMP health score, the band it commands on the public ladder, the tripwires lit, and the risk budget the models were ordered to run — beside the S&P's closing price, so you can scroll the tape against the calls. The receipts are free. Today's read lands with members before the open.

80 runs printed14 band changescurrent band Take Profits · held 20 sessions
Run dateEMP %Regime bandTripwiresRisk / CashS&P 500 close
October 2026
Oct 08, 202664.9%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,765
Oct 07, 202664.8%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,802
Oct 06, 202664.7%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,819
Oct 05, 202664.7%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,774
Oct 02, 202664.8%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,723
Oct 01, 202664.5%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,666
September 2026
Sep 30, 202664.3%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,652
Sep 29, 202664.9%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,671
Sep 28, 202665.2%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,684
Sep 25, 202665.1%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,743
Sep 24, 202665.1%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,704
Sep 23, 202665.2%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,706
Sep 22, 202664.9%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,765
Sep 21, 202665.1%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,765
Sep 18, 202665.0%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,650
Sep 17, 202664.8%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,638
Sep 16, 202665.0%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,552
Sep 15, 202664.9%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,586
Sep 14, 202665.0%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,620
Sep 11, 202665.0%Take Profits1/1191% / 9%7,657
Sep 10, 202665.6%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,592
Sep 09, 202665.6%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,636
Sep 08, 202665.7%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,674
Sep 04, 202665.8%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,719
Sep 03, 202665.5%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,748
Sep 02, 202665.5%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,667
Sep 01, 202666.2%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,631
August 2026
Aug 31, 202670.2%Build Risk1/1190% / 10%7,686
Aug 28, 202670.2%Build Risk1/1190% / 10%7,712
Aug 27, 202670.0%Build Risk1/1190% / 10%7,731
Aug 26, 202670.0%Build Risk1/1190% / 10%7,676
Aug 25, 202669.9%Build Risk1/1190% / 10%7,677
Aug 24, 202666.1%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,653
Aug 21, 202670.0%Build Risk1/1190% / 10%7,674
Aug 20, 202665.8%Stay Invested1/1185% / 15%7,641
Aug 19, 202665.9%Stay Invested1/1185% / 15%7,708
Aug 18, 202665.9%Stay Invested1/1185% / 15%7,692
Aug 17, 202665.9%Stay Invested1/1185% / 15%7,745
Aug 14, 202664.7%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,786
Aug 13, 202664.3%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,799
Aug 12, 202664.1%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,748
Aug 11, 202664.2%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,728
Aug 10, 202663.7%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,753
Aug 07, 202663.5%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,758
Aug 06, 202667.3%Build Risk1/1190% / 10%7,710
Aug 05, 202667.2%Build Risk1/1190% / 10%7,724
Aug 04, 202663.5%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,737
Aug 03, 202662.9%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,600
July 2026
Jul 31, 202666.9%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,490
Jul 30, 202665.3%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,438
Jul 29, 202665.6%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,316
Jul 28, 202665.5%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,429
Jul 27, 202665.6%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,413
Jul 24, 202665.6%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,412
Jul 23, 202665.6%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,408
Jul 22, 202665.6%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,499
Jul 21, 202665.3%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,509
Jul 20, 202665.2%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,443
Jul 17, 202666.1%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,458
Jul 16, 202665.9%Stay Invested1/1191% / 9%7,534
Jul 15, 202664.6%Take Profits1/1185% / 15%7,572
Jul 14, 202662.6%Take Profits2/1185% / 15%7,544
Jul 13, 202662.4%Take Profits2/1185% / 15%7,515
Jul 10, 202662.4%Take Profits2/1185% / 15%7,575
Jul 09, 202662.4%Take Profits2/1185% / 15%7,544
Jul 08, 202662.4%Take Profits2/1185% / 15%7,483
Jul 07, 202662.4%Take Profits2/1185% / 15%7,504
June 2026
Jun 30, 202663.1%Take Profits2/1188% / 12%7,499
Jun 29, 202662.9%Take Profits2/1189% / 11%7,440
Jun 24, 202663.5%Take Profits2/1190% / 10%7,358
Jun 16, 202663.4%Take Profits2/1190% / 10%7,511
Jun 11, 202661.5%Take Profits3/1190% / 10%7,394
Jun 09, 202664.3%Take Profits2/1190% / 10%7,387
Jun 05, 202664.8%Take Profits2/1177% / 23%7,384
Jun 04, 202664.8%Take Profits2/1177% / 23%7,584
Jun 03, 202664.6%Take Profits2/1177% / 23%7,554
Jun 01, 202664.3%Take Profits2/1177% / 23%7,600
May 2026
May 28, 202664.0%Take Profits2/1177% / 23%7,564
May 26, 202664.1%Take Profits2/1177% / 23%7,519
May 22, 202663.1%Take Profits2/1177% / 23%7,473

Oct 09, 2026’s read is members-first. Members receive it before the open; it posts to this public ledger the next trading day.

On a phone. Tripwires, Risk / Cash and the S&P close are hidden in portrait so the dates and bands fit. Turn the phone sideways for the full ledger — nothing has been removed from the record.

Three band changes in three sessions — and what we did about it. On 21, 24 and 25 August the band moved Build Risk → Stay Invested → Build Risk. We traced it: a single valuation input moved 0.04 across a hard threshold and dragged one leg of the score −30/−60/−30 behind it, while the other thirty indicators moved eight tenths of a point between them. The regime band is now set by a rule that commits only on a decisive move — a valuation signal that wanders across a threshold does not move the book; it has to clear it and stay clear. Registered 21 August, before the third of those three days had printed, and adopted 26 August. The rows above are left exactly as they were published. Publishing the fix beside the wobble is the whole point of keeping a record you cannot edit.

Reading the tape. Rows are grouped by month, and the tinted rows with the gold edge mark the sessions the regime band actually changed — the days the call moved are the story; everything between them is the machine holding its ground.

How a horizon matures. The 7- and 30-day marks are calendar horizons, but a price only ever comes from a trading close. When a horizon lands on a weekend or a holiday the mark is taken from a real session inside a fixed window around it — never carried forward, never interpolated, and never a weekend "price", because none exists. So a call made on a Sunday matures against the Friday that follows its seventh day. Each horizon fills once, the moment the call is old enough, and is never refilled: the number you see is the number first published, not the latest re-derivation.

Coverage. This ledger prints every trading day since the desk went live on July 27, 2026. Rows before that date come from our build-and-test period, when runs were made as the system was being developed — they are shown exactly as they were printed, which is why early coverage is intermittent, and they are never backfilled. Going forward, publication may occasionally be delayed or missed for reasons outside our control (data-vendor, market-data or infrastructure outages among them); any resulting gap simply remains a gap, because this record is never edited or reconstructed after the fact.

Band shown is derived from the printed EMP score via the public 8-rung ladder on The System — deterministic and checkable from this table alone.

Focus Stock Setups

Every stock we named, and what it did next.

One row per dated Focus call — the price it was struck at, where it trades now, and the return at each milestone as it matures. Milestones are written once, when the call comes of age, and never rewritten. Days the machine named nothing are counted in the summary below, never dropped from the denominator.

Both horizons, and the days we said nothing.
7-day forward
+0.61%
n = 64 matured · 52% positive
every Focus call, 7 trading-day mark
30-day forward
+5.33%
n = 47 matured · 72% positive
every Focus call, 30-day mark
NO CALL days
21%
18 of 87 runs
no name cleared the bar — by design

Both horizons are published because both are the record. The 7-day series is the harder read and it stays on the page; the 30-day series is the one the model is built around. NO CALL days are counted as what they are — days the machine found nothing worth your money — never quietly dropped from the denominator.

Call dateName Struck at NowLive 7D30D 60D90D
Oct 09, 2026CDNA CareDx, Inc$62.21$62.21+0.0%in 7din 30din 60din 90d
Oct 08, 2026RNG RingCentral, Inc.$76.54$78.35+2.4%in 6din 29din 59din 89d
Oct 07, 2026ECO Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp.$86.85$94.44+8.7%in 5din 28din 58din 88d
Oct 06, 2026ASST Strive, Inc.$30.26$28.23-6.7%in 4din 27din 57din 87d
Oct 05, 2026HTFL Heartflow, Inc. Common Sto$49.32$47.63-3.4%in 3din 26din 56din 86d
Oct 02, 2026TEAM Atlassian Corp.$189.91$203.57+7.2%+7.2%in 23din 53din 83d
Oct 01, 2026PBF PBF Energy$76.96$89.34+16.1%+8.7%in 22din 52din 82d
Sep 30, 2026ECO Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp.$80.25$94.44+17.7%+8.2%in 21din 51din 81d
Sep 29, 2026CBZ CBIZ, Inc.$54.71$54.80+0.2%+0.0%in 20din 50din 80d
Sep 28, 2026ASST Strive, Inc.$29.44$28.23-4.1%+2.0%in 19din 49din 79d
Sep 25, 2026CVI CVR Energy, Inc.$51.30$59.54+16.1%+6.0%in 16din 46din 76d
Sep 24, 2026TEAM Atlassian Corp.$195.08$203.57+4.4%-8.1%in 15din 45din 75d
Sep 23, 2026PLSE Pulse Biosciences, Inc.$52.69$49.98-5.1%-3.4%in 14din 44din 74d
Sep 22, 2026GTLB GitLab Inc.$49.79$53.56+7.6%-7.2%in 13din 43din 73d
Sep 21, 2026DK Delek US Holdings, Inc.$78.12$76.60-1.9%-13.2%in 12din 42din 72d
Sep 18, 2026BWIN The Baldwin Insurance Grou$31.95$31.85-0.3%-0.3%in 9din 39din 69d
Sep 17, 2026TEAM Atlassian Corp.$190.28$203.57+7.0%+2.5%in 8din 38din 68d
Sep 16, 2026NIQ NIQ Global Intelligence Pl$18.54$17.91-3.4%-3.1%in 7din 37din 67d
Sep 15, 2026VEEV Veeva Systems$265.67$284.84+7.2%-1.6%in 6din 36din 66d
Sep 14, 2026CHYM Chime Financial, Inc. Clas$33.00$28.96-12.2%-8.1%in 5din 35din 65d
Sep 11, 2026GTLB GitLab Inc.$47.30$53.56+13.2%+6.3%in 2din 32din 62d
Sep 10, 2026TEAM Atlassian Corp.$177.74$203.57+14.5%+7.1%in 1din 31din 61d
Sep 08, 2026TXG 10x Genomics, Inc.$62.65$77.28+23.4%+11.9%+21.5%in 29din 59d
Sep 04, 2026CHYM Chime Financial, Inc. Clas$33.15$28.96-12.6%-1.4%-17.8%in 25din 55d
Sep 03, 2026AVTR Avantor$14.65$15.39+5.1%+1.6%+2.6%in 24din 54d
Sep 02, 2026PBF PBF Energy$74.99$89.34+19.1%+2.4%+9.8%in 23din 53d
Sep 01, 2026QLYS Qualys Inc.$186.14$193.86+4.1%-3.0%+5.8%in 22din 52d
Aug 31, 2026CRL Charles River Laboratories$291.50$298.00+2.2%-1.0%+1.5%in 21din 51d
Aug 28, 2026CORT Corcept Therapeutics$116.93$118.54+1.4%-2.7%+1.9%in 18din 48d
Aug 27, 2026HNGE Hinge Health, Inc.$90.50$98.00+8.3%+1.5%+1.6%in 17din 47d
Aug 26, 2026NTRA Natera Inc.$336.71$390.79+16.1%-5.2% ᶠ+21.4%in 16din 46d
Aug 25, 2026HNGE Hinge Health, Inc.$89.98$98.00+8.9%+2.9%+2.6%in 15din 45d
Aug 24, 2026QLYS Qualys Inc.$181.98$193.86+6.5%+2.8%+0.7%in 14din 44d
Aug 23, 2026PBF PBF Energy$73.53$89.34+21.5%-3.1%-1.4%in 13din 43d
Aug 21, 2026CHYM Chime Financial, Inc. Clas$31.95$28.96-9.4%+4.4%-5.1%in 11din 41d
Aug 20, 2026NTAP NetApp Inc.$194.48$230.53+18.5%-0.3%+1.3%in 10din 40d
Aug 19, 2026CRL Charles River Laboratories$279.19$298.00+6.7%+6.6%+0.9%in 9din 39d
Aug 17, 2026GH Guardant Health$157.21$165.56+5.3%+5.6% ᶠ+11.7%in 7din 37d
Aug 16, 2026HNGE Hinge Health, Inc.$88.49$98.00+10.7%-3.2%+7.1%in 6din 36d
Aug 14, 2026GH Guardant Health$159.54$165.56+3.8%+2.4%-1.4%in 4din 34d
Aug 13, 2026AVTR Avantor$13.93$15.39+10.5%+0.2%+6.8%in 3din 33d
Aug 12, 2026FROG JFrog$86.10$97.25+13.0%+11.7%+3.0%in 2din 32d
Aug 07, 2026GH Guardant Health$157.58$165.56+5.1%+1.2%+0.9%+18.8%in 27d
Jul 30, 2026FTNT Fortinet Inc.$160.08$189.10+18.1%+9.1% ᶠ-1.6%+8.4%in 19d
Jul 29, 2026NTAP NetApp Inc.$173.11$230.53+33.2%+10.0%+10.1%+16.2%in 18d
Jul 28, 2026CVLT Commvault Systems$149.46$151.00+1.0%-16.4%-10.1%+0.4%in 17d
Jul 24, 2026GH Guardant Health$150.20$165.56+10.2%+11.5%+8.7%+15.8%in 13d
Jul 23, 2026GH Guardant Health$150.20$165.56+10.2%+0.7%+8.7%+19.4%in 12d
Jul 22, 2026OSCR Oscar Health$30.77$33.10+7.6%+1.1%+2.6%+4.4%in 11d
Jul 21, 2026FROG JFrog$90.43$97.25+7.5%-10.2%+6.3%+3.9%in 10d
Jul 20, 2026CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings$203.96$263.01+29.0%-10.1%+4.4%+18.9%in 9d
Jul 19, 2026CNC Centene$66.44$64.54-2.9%-4.6%+1.6%-0.6%in 8d
Jul 17, 2026OKTA Okta Inc.$147.74$220.21+49.1%-7.9%-0.2%+13.4%in 6d
Jul 16, 2026OSCR Oscar Health$30.61$33.10+8.1%-3.6%+0.6%+7.1%in 5d
Jul 15, 2026CVLT Commvault Systems$145.16$151.00+4.0%+0.9%+4.1%-10.4%in 4d
Jul 14, 2026TGTX TG Therapeutics$55.01$53.34-3.0%-1.9%-10.0%+0.7%in 3d
Jul 13, 2026TWST Twist Bioscience$91.75$152.05+65.7%-2.0%+34.2%+38.3%in 2d
Jul 10, 2026TWST Twist Bioscience$89.90$152.05+69.1%+1.5%+38.9%+38.7%+73.1%
Jul 09, 2026CNC Centene$67.50$64.54-4.4%-1.3%-4.9%-0.7%-4.3%
Jul 08, 2026CNC Centene$67.08$64.54-3.8%+1.8%-4.3%+1.1%-4.1%
Jul 07, 2026BRKR Bruker$59.03$57.92-1.9%-0.1%-11.1%+0.3%+7.1%
Jun 24, 2026STX Seagate Technology Holding$1,020.99$774.83-24.1%-3.2%-10.5%-16.7%-14.1%
Jun 09, 2026UMC United Microelectronics$20.00$22.82+14.1%+10.3%+24.8%-4.0%+3.8%
Jun 05, 2026WDC Western Digital$533.60$393.31-26.3%-1.7%+23.3%-1.2%-15.9%
Jun 04, 2026ON ON Semiconductor$129.13$79.41-38.5%-10.2%-27.8%-36.8%-43.7%
Jun 03, 2026PANW Palo Alto Networks$279.61$398.50+42.5%-6.9%+20.9%+18.7%+36.7%
May 24, 2026WDC Western Digital$484.28$393.31-18.8%+14.6%+32.9% ᶠ+15.3%-3.1%
May 23, 2026STX Seagate Technology Holding$812.73$774.83-4.7%+9.5%+28.4%+9.7%+4.6%
May 22, 2026ON ON Semiconductor$116.20$79.41-31.7%+9.8%+5.1%-25.4%-34.1%

How to read this. Struck at is the close the call was published against. Now is the latest close (Oct 08, 2026), and Live is the move since the call — it keeps changing. The milestone columns do not: each is fixed the day it matures, which is why an old call and a new one can be compared at all. A milestone still running shows the days left. Hypothetical; no commissions, taxes, spreads or slippage. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Ledger 2 · Model Performance

Foundation, Pulse and Strike — marked to market against the S&P 500.

Everything below is the live performance of our Tactical Radar System portfolios — the same three books anyone can follow on Autopilot and mirror in their own brokerage. Each is indexed to 100 where NAV marking began, shown beside the S&P 500 they answer to. They sit on a risk ladder: Foundation (lower risk), Pulse (medium), and Strike (higher).

MEASURED SINCE JUL 20, 2026 · 80 DAYS · 58 MARKED RUNS · THROUGH OCT 08, 2026 · INDEX = 100 AT START
100 Jul 20Oct 08S&P +4.3%STRIKE +3.4%FOUNDATION +2.5%PULSE -5.9%
How each line is built. Pulse and Strike are marked to market from their permanent position logs — real closing prices, stops honored, every fill on the ledger. Foundation is marked to market from its own allocation log — the holdings and weights it carried each day, priced at the close, the same way as Pulse and Strike. All three update automatically with every pipeline run. Live NAV marking began July 7, 2026 (Model Improvement 1, when the books moved to once-a-month entries and a disciplined mid-month exit review), which is why the curves start there and grow from here.

Hypothetical model-portfolio performance, not client accounts. No commissions, taxes, spreads or slippage are modeled; results are indexed, not dollar returns you could have earned. We publish them anyway — drawdowns and all — because a risk desk that hides its own drawdown isn't one. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

FoundationLower risk

The long-term core — think of it the way you'd think about a retirement account. Foundation reads the EMP macro regime to decide how much of the book belongs in broad equities versus a cash sleeve, leaning in when the backdrop is healthy and stepping back when the score flags stress. Built for steady compounding and shallower drawdowns rather than the biggest number in a good year.

Follow Foundation on Autopilot →
PulseMedium risk

The balanced growth book — Tactical Radar Pulse. Pulse spreads across the leading themes the system favors, holding a diversified set of names inside the equity budget the regime allows. More growth-oriented than Foundation and more diversified than Strike: conviction with guardrails, for an investor who wants to push returns without concentrating into a handful of bets.

Follow Pulse on Autopilot →
StrikeHigher risk

The aggressive book — Tactical Radar Strike. Strike runs the system's highest-conviction names without a theme budget holding it back, so it concentrates where the signal is strongest. The widest range of outcomes of the three — the largest upside in strong tapes, the deepest drawdowns when leadership breaks — for an investor who can stomach the swings.

Follow Strike on Autopilot →
The Proving Ground
Champion vs. Challengers — the models above are defending their seats.

Behind the live books — and the call desk, the put lab, the swing desk and the scoring core itself — registered challengers run every pipeline day as shadow harnesses — same dated marks, frozen rules, pre-registered promotion gates, and control lanes that are built to lose. A challenger that beats the champion out of sample, past its gate, becomes the live model. We are never satisfied with the champion — that is the point.

Gate progress — resize lanes: 0/24 out-of-sample resize Mondays · selection lanes: 1/12 out-of-sample months
Watch the challengers →

Page last rebuilt October 09, 2026. Full methodology on The System.